Shares of Hershey rose 4% on Thursday and hit a new all-time high after the candymaker's first-quarter results beat expectations on the top and bottom lines. The tech-heavy index was last up more than 2%. writes Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. Stripping away volatile food and energy prices, the core measure repeated February's 0.3% print and came in slightly cooler year-on-year, shedding 0.1 percentage point to 4.6%, a tad warmer than analyst expectations. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. The stock was last down about 1.5% in extended trading. Thursday at 11,855, as well as Tuesday's low at 11,798, and the Meanwhile, a Reuters analysis showed the term "AI" has been The Dow Jones Industrial Average member earned an adjusted $4.91 a share last quarter on revenue of $15.862 billion. #AAII Investor Sentiment Bullish: 24.1%, down 3.1 points Neutral: 37.4%, down 0.3 points Bearish: 38.5%, up 3.4 points Pessimism among individual investors stayed above average for the 10th consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Their sentiment toward the market is about right: 18.6% The AAII indicators are making waves this week so I will cover two charts. software and grassroots meetings. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Charles Rotblut, CFA is the editor of the AAII Journal, the flagship publication of The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). A Division of NBCUniversal. equities overcome a drop of nearly 4% in heavyweight Amazon.com . But the Nasdaq has lagged on a month-to-date basis, shedding 0.7% while the Dow and S&P 500 rose 1.7% and 0.6%, respectively, since April began. Shares of other tech-related names such as Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Apple also popped. This shows the current bearish readings are indeed some of the most severe we've seen even going back to the pre-2000s secular bull market. for the tenth-straight week in the latest American Association The 2003 low was a retest of the 2002 lows, but the prospect of moving to new lows for the cycle made investors incredibly bearish. While any survey has its imperfections, I like the fact that this survey has been around for so long in a fairly consistent format. Meta drove gains in the sector after posting first-quarter results that beat analysts' expectations. Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for March , and with an additional boost from an advance in oil prices, while AAII percent bears surged to 39.3% and percent bulls dropped to 22.40%. Investor sentiment is measured with a weekly survey conducted from Thursday at 12:01 a.m. until Wednesday at 11:59 p.m. Tracking sentiment gives investors a forward-looking perspective of the market instead of relying on historical data, which tends to result in hindsight bias. Major U.S. averages are higher in the early stages of trading, with the Nasdaq recently erasing initial declines, as equities overcome a drop of nearly 4% in heavyweight Amazon.com AMZN. Revenue increased 17% from the same quarter a year ago. Neutral sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, edged down by 0.3 percentage points to 37.4%. up. Neutral sentiment and optimism Show more . corporations. . "Consumers' inclination to spend wasn't strong in March," But the fallout could deter company's from making similar attempts, which can bring negative consequences to EA. The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. In last week's survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) the bullish % dropped sharply to 24.9% from 32.8% the prior week. Gains were led by Microsoft , Apple and All Rights Reserved. Shares of Teladoc Health soared more than 7% in premarket after the telemedicine company reported a revenue beat for the latest quarter. The logic behind fear and greed in the stock market is based on the finding that fear tends to drive down the prices of securities such as stocks, and greed tends to have the opposite effect by increasing share prices exponentially. The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) delivered a reading of 48.6, 5.1 points north of expectations, Cryptocurrency fear and greed surveys aim to gauge which emotion is driving the cryptocurrency market. volatility measure on a daily basis collapse to a 20-month low, topped Wall Street expectations for the first quarter. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) is a non-profit organization focused on providing education and services to investors for assistance with investing decisions. endstream endobj 67 0 obj <> endobj 68 0 obj <> endobj 69 0 obj <>stream "We think the tumultuous and costly MSFT/ATVI experience, culminating with a critical UK rejection, could dissuade potential suitors from attempting big, multi-billion dollar deals, perhaps turning towards more bite-sized, sub-$1 billion deals, thereby reducing the takeout premium built into EA shares," BMO analyst Gerrick Johnson said. It also estimated a smaller operating loss of between $110 million to $160 million. We were tested, and I think the silver lining of the test is we passed, and I think we passed with flying colors," Deutsche Bank CFO James von Moltke told CNBC. The The green bars represent the percent of respondents who were bullish, while the red bars show the percent of bearish respondents. that could counter the rising cost of capital," Rust told the *, U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield slides to ~3.44% Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%. The Commerce Department released its broad-ranging Personal So, basically, the current move has been so severe that you have no historical parallel without bringing in more data. On the chart below, the red lines show when bull-bear net dips below -15% and the green lines show when bull-bear net subsequently exceeds +15%, levels that show modest excess. At AAII, we believe that letting emotions govern investment behavior often leads to irrational decision-making, especially when you are using this as your sole research. (1245 EDT/1645 GMT) The conglomerate reported adjusted first-quarter earnings of $2.07 per share on revenues of $8.86 billion. Jan 19, 2022 supply issue is largely due to the onshoring of manufacturing With this, both optimism and neutral sentiment declined. The Sentiment Survey is a contrarian indicator. A 30-year mortgage rate near 7% has provided a substantial impediment to the industry, as has a generally slowing economy and lack of supply. 2023 CNBC LLC. Eli Lilly also guided expected revenue up to between $31.2 billion and $31.7 billion from the prior anticipated range of $30.3 billion and $30.8 billion. 30 Apr 2023 19:17:32 The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are on pace to end April in the red. KLA Corporation was among the notable names boosting the Nasdaq Composite during midday trading. stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 3.4 The oil company giant posted better-than-expected earnings . "Developing more open source models (including LLMs) and helping create an open ecosystem is another area of focus as an open ecosystem should enable META to stay at the forefront and drive infrastructure efficiency over time," Morgan Stanley's Brian Nowak wrote on Thursday. programs of education, publications, Every week, AAII members are invited to cast a ballot of bullish, neutral or bearish on stocks for the next six months. Caterpillar shares gained 3.5% in early trading. Microsoft said it plans to appeal the decision. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.62%. The Nasdaq Composite has shed 3% month to date, and is thus far headed toward its worst month in 2023. The weekly American Association of Individual Investor survey, which polled individual investors of their thoughts on where the market is heading in the next six months, has indicated a level of bearishness that's close to the level during 2008, RBC said. The two stocks were the worst performers in the 30-stock index, with Merck shedding around 1.5% and Caterpillar sliding just over 3.2%. P.S. "Consumers' inclination to spend wasn't strong in March," writes Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (USCPMI=ECI) delivered a reading of 48.6,5.1 points north of expectations, although still below the magic level of 50, the dividing line between contraction and expansion. Ready to upgrade your investment process? expectations were hotter than originally reported, according to Firms including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup all updated price targets for the stock. I was taught that investors tend to be excessively bearish at market bottoms and overly bullish at market tops. %%EOF The AAII Sentiment Survey offers insight into the opinions of individual investors by asking them their thoughts on where the market is heading in the next six months and has been doing so since 1987. Neutral sentiment continues to be above its historical average for the 16th time out of the past 17 weeks. Individual investors are so bearish it's a contrarian buy signal that should mean a 15% gain, RBC says. Along with running their Think B.I.G. Stocks finished Thursday higher as strong results from Meta Platforms boosted tech-related names. Elsewhere in the report, personal income grew by As the S&P 500 broke down to the lowest levels of April this week, bullish sentiment according to the weekly AAII survey came in at a new short-term low. Kitco Account, Ray Dalio: The U.S. and China are on 'the brink of an economic resources war', Yellen warns the U.S. could default by June 1 if the debt ceiling is not raised, Bitcoin price in freefall, plunges below $28k as traders flee financial markets, Gold retreats as robust US data lifts dollar; focus on Fed, Sotheby's doubles down on NFTs with the launch of a secondary marketplace, Monday's Charts for Gold, Silver and Platinum and Palladium, May 1, Where are the stops? The AAII sentiment survey is a simple survey of its members, asking where they see the market going in the next six months. The company reported 92 cents in adjusted earnings per share, 10 cents higher than expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv. artificial intelligence providing significant productivity gains One of the most popular surveys out there is the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Survey. consumer spending has leveled off. But what does that mean? The bearish reading of almost 60% was only seen at the 2003 market low, the 2006 pullback, and much of 2008 going into the 2009 market bottom. historical average of 31.0% for the 70th time out of the past 75 weeks. Market volatility continues to be a concern for individual investors. Bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, dipped by 3.1 percentage points to 24.1%. Meanwhile, the Dow is up just 0.08% in April. Looking at market sentiment helps investors think about the future, rather than focus too heavily on historical data and events. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. The selling among individual investors reached a new milestone as of late. When reviewing the data of the AAII Sentiment Survey, a variety of indicators and criteria should also be considered before making a tactical change in asset allocation based on the results. Health care and energy were the two worst performing sectors, with each dropping around 0.8%. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors. A Division of NBCUniversal. Video game company Electronic Arts could face pressure after the collapse of Microsoft's takeover bid of Activision Blizzard, according to BMO Capital Markets. This week's AAII Sentiment Survey results: Bullish: 32.8%, down 4.9 percentage points Neutral: 33.9%, up 2.1 percentage points Bearish: 33.3%, up 2.8 percentage points Historical averages:. Roku also raised its outlook for its current-quarter revenue to $770 million, coming in higher than Wall Street's estimate of $768 million. With this, both optimism and neutral sentiment declined. The table below shows SPX returns after these occurrences, while the second table shows returns after all the AAII reports since 1987. Eight of the 11 sectors were trading up in what's so far been a winning day for the index. U.K. regulators blocked the deal on Wednesday, citing concerns over competition in the industry. Economists had forecast expansion of 2%, per Dow Jones. Management cited weakness in China's electric vehicle market as a driver of the chilled expectations. Next, employment costs - one of the main drivers of "We've seen a significant shift over the last six months An IXIC thrust above this year's high at 12,270, as well as As with other sentiment indicators, investors should consider other data points before drawing a conclusion from one cryptocurrency fear and greed index. %PDF-1.5 % Bearish sentiment The chart below shows the SPX along with the percentage of bulls in the AAII survey, minus the percentage of bears. Pending home sales declined 5.2% in March, the first decrease since November 2022, according to the National Association of Realtors. recently reverting closer to its historical average, it is now at 9:49 AM, The latest reading revealed there were at least 10% more bears than bulls. In certain cases, like the 2008-2009 cyclical bear market, excessively bearish sentiment was just the beginning of a long and painful journey to the downside. Entering text into the input field will update the search result below. It's important to understand that investor sentiment is not an exact science and doesn't always provide a true indicator of future price increases and or decreases. "Technology has the potential to be the saving grace with The airline's revenue of $5.71 billion also fell short of analysts' estimates of $5.73 billion. The stock rose 71 cents, or about 12%, but is still trading below $7 per share. Because this survey is volatile and represents the fleeting thoughts of investors, I consider its implications only in the short-term. Next, employment costs - one of the main drivers of inflation and a top concern of the Fed - heated up more than analysts expected in the first three months of the year. analysts expected in the first three months of the year. The AAII Sentiment Survey should be used in conjunction with other resources and tools such as historical data, screens, power rankings and gradesall offered with our A+ Investor subscription. Their sentiment toward the market is about right: 18.6%, Bullish: 24.1%, down 3.1 percentage points, Neutral: 37.4%, down 0.3 percentage points. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 24.1%. tad warmer than analyst expectations. Southwest Airlines' stock shed 5.6% after it reported a $159 million loss in the first quarter as the effects of its December 2022 meltdown carried over into the first quarter. Pessimism among individual investors stayed above average for the 10th consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. The fear and greed index, first developed by CNNMoney, aims to measure these two primary emotions since they have been found to influence how much investors are willing to pay for stocks. The tech stock was last up more than 15%. Although bearish sentiment was recently reverting closer to its historical average, it is now approaching an unusually high level again. AAII Members can login to vote in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey today! 50-day moving average, which closed Thursday at 11,788, will Shares of Caterpillar moved into the red in premarket trading despite initially popping following earnings results. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. "The backbone of the US economy isn't in recession today, but we think one is on the way.". respect to Fed rate hike expectations. of the past 75 weeks. Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit, Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower, Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was shuffling between gains and losses. However, remember that this information should always be taken with a grain of salt and not in isolation. Let's bring in 20 more years of data, which will take us back to the late 1990s. The bank was briefly swept up in the volatility after the emergency rescueofCredit SuissebyUBS. An IXIC thrust above this year's high at 12,270, as well as the upper daily BB, now around 12,285, will have potential to spark upside momentum. Several analysts hiked their price targets following the release. 66 0 obj <> endobj Speaking which, the mood of the American consumer has Spartan Capital Securities. Deutsche Bank passed banking crisis test with flying colors, CFO says, The major averages over a one-month period, the American Association of Individual Investors said. Rest assured your losses are effectively limited to your initial cost at the time of making your move! inflation and a top concern of the Fed - heated up more than Contrarian investing strategies prompt investors and firms to enter the market when others are feeling negative about it. Note that the remaining 38.3% are neutral. Note that the remaining 38.3% are neutral. percentage points to 38.5%. and Scrap, Open Founded by Paul Hickey and Justin Walters, formerly of Birinyi Associates and creators of the acclaimed TickerSense blog, Bespoke offers multiple products that allow anyone, from institutions to the most modest investor, to gain the data and knowledge necessary to make intelligent and profitable investment decisions. The market tends to move against the mood of the investors measured by contrarian indicators. Fidelity National earned an adjusted $1.29 per share on revenue of $3.51 billion. Got a confidential news tip? Investor sentiment is often expressed as bearish or bullish. Additionally, investors can be described as being either fearful or greedy, depending on market sentiment. After an occurrence in which the index was farther away from an all-time high, the SPX averaged a gain of 1.42%, with 68% of the returns positive. All Rights Reserved. After any AAII report, the index gained an average of 0.70%, with a median of 1.17%. This trend, which will require more investment at a time shift inflationary pressures from the supply to the demand side. calls of S&P 500 companies as it was in the previous he added. The gauge stood at negative 14.4% as of Thursday. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 6.5 percentage points to -14.4%. and the distance they have yet to fall before approaching Powell FOR FRIDAY'S LIVE MARKETS POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300 GMT - CLICK HERE, Top website in the world when it comes to all things investing, Rating from 1M+ reviews. The sector is up more than 4.5% Thursday, led up by advances of more than 14% and 6% from Meta and Comcast, respectively. Mobileye Global, a software company that works on assisted and autonomous driving, slashed its outlook for the year on Thursday morning, citing a slowdown in China. although still below the magic level of 50, the dividing line The growth in the first quarter came from a combination of volume gains and higher prices, the company said. Given that tech accounts for nearly 30% of S&P 500 market cap, it would appear that market fireworks are not far off.

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